#Economy #Grown #Previous #Elections
Key takeaways
- The US GDP report was released on Wednesday, just days before the election in which the economy became a major issue.
- Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden exploited the growing economy to attract voters.
- Analysts said economic growth is often good news for incumbents trying to win re-election.
With the presidential election less than a week away, voters will get some recent economic data this week before Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.
According to a Pew Research poll, the economy is voters’ top concern, with 81% saying it is the issue most important to them when they head to the polls.
While the stock market is on a tear in 2024, economists said voters will often pay attention to other metrics when assessing the health of the economy.
“The real economy tends to provide better signals than financial markets about how elections will pan out,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa. “Broad economic indicators, including income, employment, GDP growth, and consumption, are more important than market measures like market prices.” Stocks.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday released its first estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product, a measure of goods and services sold in the economy. It showed that the economy grew by 2.8% from July through September. GDP grew a little slower than some economists expected, but remained at a historically strong level.
Here’s what Q3 GDP looked like heading into the last election.
Biden won amid pandemic economic shocks
President Joe Biden won the 2020 election when third-quarter GDP was 35.2%. The number was abnormally high as the economy rebounded from a second-quarter GDP of negative 28.1%, due to pandemic-era lockdowns.
Trump was triumphant amid a growing economy
When former President Donald Trump won the 2016 election, GDP growth reached 2.9% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter. That was close to the all-time average GDP, which was 3.1% between 1947 when the government started tracking GDP, and Wednesday.
Romney was unable to take advantage of the slow economy
In 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney had the advantage of a slow economy, with third-quarter GDP at 0.6% after declining in the previous three quarters. But despite the economic downturn, Romney was unable to unseat then-President Barack Obama.
Obama faced an economic slowdown when he won re-election, and economists said it generally takes a severe economic downturn to turn public opinion away from an incumbent.
“Incumbency for a first term usually provides an advantage—unless there is a recession during or immediately before the election. When there is no recession, the incumbent almost always wins in the post-World War II period,” Phillips and Krupa wrote.
Obama won while the economy collapsed in the financial crisis
Obama’s run for president came amid the 2008 financial crisis when a decline in the housing market undermined the stability of the economy. In the third quarter of 2008, the economy began to falter, contracting by 2.1%.
Bush rode a strong economy to get re-elected
In 2004, former President George W. Bush won re-election thanks in part to a strong economy, which produced 3.8% growth in the third quarter. GDP in the second quarter of 2004 was also strong at 3.1%.
Bush leads Gore as economy falters
Bush first won reelection in 2000, and a sagging economy may have helped put him over the top in a close election against Democratic nominee Al Gore. Voters faced economic growth of just 0.4% in the third quarter of 2000, a sharp decline from the 7.5% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
#Economy #Grown #Previous #Elections
