#Inflation #Hasnt #High #Election #Day
Key takeaways
- Although inflation is starting to ease, voters may remember higher prices in 2022 when they go to the polls this year.
- Inflation has not reached this level during an election season since 2008 during the financial crisis.
- Although inflation has typically been below 4% during presidential elections over the past two decades, voters in 1980 faced the highest inflation rate ever recorded during a presidential campaign.
After months of campaigning, the 2024 presidential election is just around the corner, and many voters are looking at the economy before casting their ballots.
Perhaps no economic issue has attracted more attention than inflation, with voters seeing some of the highest price levels in the past 30 years.
In a Gallup poll on election issues, 14% of Americans said inflation is the biggest problem facing the country, and another 21% said the economy in general represents the nation’s biggest challenge.
Learn more before the election
This is one of a series of articles published by Investopedia about important economic indicators ahead of the 2024 elections. You can read more here:
According to the September measure of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation rate fell to 2.1% over the year. However, prices have not fallen, and many voters still remember the recent rise in inflation, which reached 7.2% in June 2022.
Voters have faced varying degrees of price pressures as they head to the polls in recent years. Below are some of the inflation rates voters experienced in recent elections.
Biden won during a period of low inflation in the pandemic era
For voters, the September PCE reading is usually the last inflation reading they get before heading to the polls. When voters went to the polls in 2020, the inflation rate was 1.3%, a slight increase from the previous month.
While inflation was low during that period, it also occurred against the backdrop of the global COVID-19 pandemic, creating several economic issues for voters that ultimately helped Joe Biden defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in that election.
Trump won during a period of steady inflation
In 2016, Trump managed to win during a period of similarly low inflation, with inflation in September at 1.2%. The positive inflation rate came during the administration of President Barack Obama, but voters did not reward his party, as Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Obama won re-election due to low inflation after rising in 2008
In the 2012 presidential election, President Barack Obama won re-election on the back of a September inflation rate of 1.7%, up slightly from the previous month. Obama won the 2008 election against the backdrop of the financial crisis that year, when inflation reached 3.7% after reaching 4% the previous month.
Bush faced a similar pattern of inflation in his election victories
Inflation was close to the current level when former President George W. Bush won his first presidential election. Voters faced an inflation rate of 2.5% in September 2000. Four years later, inflation was slightly better at 2.3% in September 2004. While these readings were above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, that target was not officially set until 2012. .
Reagan won as inflation rose to 10%, and was re-elected as price pressures eased
While inflation has not been a major issue for voters over the past 40 years, the 1980 presidential election took place during a much different economic environment.
During that election, the annual inflation rate was 10.7% before voting day, the highest rate during any presidential campaign in the PCE’s 64-year history. Former President Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter in that election. Four years later, Reagan won re-election after inflation fell to 3.3%.
#Inflation #Hasnt #High #Election #Day
