#Unemployment #Factored #Elections
Key takeaways
- The unemployment rate is the lowest before Election Day in more than two decades.
- While only a small percentage of voters this year cite unemployment as a major election issue, it played a larger role in past elections.
- High unemployment rates have sometimes, but not always, been a problem for incumbent presidents seeking re-election.
While the economy is the main issue in this election, one thing voters are less concerned about is unemployment, although it played a larger role in past elections.
A Gallup poll found that while 43% of people cited economic issues as their top concern, only 2% specifically cited unemployment. One reason may be that unemployment has been relatively low, especially compared to historical levels. The unemployment rate of 4.1% for October 2024 is the lowest level before a presidential election in more than two decades.
Learn more before the election
This is one of a series of articles published by Investopedia about important economic indicators ahead of the 2024 elections. You can read more here:
However, the unemployment rate played a larger role in the last election, as voters faced significantly higher rates. Here’s how labor market measurements affected the last presidential election.
Biden won amid pandemic high unemployment
President Joe Biden won the 2020 election amid runaway inflation at the height of the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 lockdown.
In April 2020, the unemployment rate reached 14.8%, the highest rate recorded in more than 70 years. By Election Day, voters were expecting an October unemployment rate of 6.8%, the highest election season unemployment rate in eight years.
Trump won as unemployment trended lower
Former President Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election on the back of an unemployment rate of 4.9% in October. The unemployment rate that year fluctuated mostly in that range but was lower than in recent years as the labor market recovered from the shocks that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
Obama won despite persistent unemployment
President Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 against one of the highest unemployment rates voters have ever faced on Election Day, with a quarter of voters in one poll saying it was their top issue.
Obama first won the presidency in 2008 when unemployment rates rose to 6.5% in October 2008, and have been rising steadily as the economy deteriorates. After peaking at 10.0% in 2009, the unemployment rate reached 7.8% when he was re-elected in October 2012.
Bush won re-election despite high unemployment rates during his term
Former President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, worse than the 3.9% unemployment rate when he was elected four years earlier. While the economy is often the top issue for voters, in the 2004 election, voters cited the US war in Iraq as their top issue, according to a Gallup poll.
High unemployment rates have punished previous incumbents
History has shown that a high unemployment rate can affect presidential elections. Former President George H. W. Bush lost his re-election bid in 1992 when the unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent, nearly 2 percentage points higher than when he took office.
Likewise, a 7.5% unemployment rate in 1980 helped sink former President Jimmy Carter’s re-election campaign. He won four years ago when the unemployment rate was slightly higher and a third of voters indicated in one poll that the issue was their most important.
One former president who bucked this trend was Ronald Reagan, who won re-election in 1984 when the unemployment rate was at 7.4%, only marginally lower than when he took office, after the unemployment rate had exceeded 10% two years earlier.
#Unemployment #Factored #Elections
